Suspicions among white-collar professionals that the recovery is an illusion, or at least has left them behind, are validated by official government data buried in the monthly employment reports, based on household surveys, which few bother to actually read.

Even more worrisome is the continuation of a decade-long decline in the number of self-employed, a category which includes many of these same professionals.

While even the seasonally-adjusted employment data show an uptick in five of the six unemployment measures (Table A-15 of the January 2015 jobs report, available at http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm), the unadjusted numbers in the same table show a measurable increase in unemployment.

However, that is not news to the white-collar workforce which has not fully recovered and which may never recover. Remember that the official data, if anything, paints a rosier picture than reality, because it is based on methodologies which strain to overstate employment and understate unemployment.

First, the reported data shows a rise in unemployment among the “management, professional and related occupations” in January 2015 from December 2014 by 173,000, while reported employment in the sector is up 479,000.  The numbers, not adjusted for seasonality, actually support an increase in the sector’s reported unemployment rate to 2.9%. In fact, reported unemployment among the “professional and related occupations”(1) and “management, business and financial operations” sectors is nearly double what it was in December 2007.

One Up on Wall Street: My Favorite Way to Beat the Market – By Mark Skousen – Financial Policy Council
Thursday, 25 June 2015
6:00 – 9:00 PM

Mark Skousen, Ph. D., Editor of Forecasts & Strategies, is a nationally known investment expert, economist, university professor, and author of more than 25 books. Currently Skousen is a Presidential Fellow at Chapman University. He recently was named one of the 20 most influential living economists. He earned his Ph. D. in monetary economics at George Washington University in 1977. He has taught economics and finance at Columbia Business School, Columbia University, Grantham University, Barnard College, Mercy College, Rollins College and Chapman University. He also has been a consultant to IBM, Hutchinson Technology and other Fortune 500 companies.

Topic: One Up on Wall Street:  My Favorite Way to Beat the Market

Date: Thursday June 25, 2015

Time: 6:00 pm – 9:00 pm

Location: The Graduate Center / CUNY at 365 Fifth Avenue at The Elebash Recital Hall – On the main floor of the building and on the left as you enter into the main lobby

Registration:

Please register as soon as you can by answering directly to the Board member who invited you as this event is “by invitation” only and as seating is limited.

If not, please go to Donations Page and fill in your full information as a “Supporter” and you will get a confirmation by return Email.

Looking forward to seeing you then and there!

Have a great day.

“Anyone who believes in indefinite growth in anything physical, on a physically finite planet, is either mad or an economist.”
― Kenneth E. Boulding
Yes it is always easy to poke fun at economic forecasts, especially because they usually turn out to be wrong, often by a large margin. However, before laughing them off, think about what is being asked of those forecasts and the economists making them by considering the below analogy.

I presume that most of you reading this own a car and have a license to drive it. The license certifies you to be minimally competent drivers, sort of the way a Ph.D. certifies an economist to have a minimal command of economics. Nonetheless, it is very easy to prove that you are all incompetent fools who know nothing about how a car works or how to drive it and thus to prove that drivers’ licenses are a big joke

For More: About Those Mad Egomaniacs We Call Economists

Everyone today would love to see a deal with Iran, but let’s face reality folks. Iran is no peace partner and no ally to the West and will never be as long as the mullahs are in power.

It is a fact that no matter how much the Iranian propagandists try to sell Iran as a country with a very vibrant society, eager to embrace the West, Iran’s record of press freedom and human rights is dismal and its sponsoring of terrorists the world over – starting with Hezbollah – is second to none.

Just take a close look at Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei when delivering speeches in front of hyped-up citizens pumping their fists in the air and chanting “death to America.” and see for yourself. Or take a closer look at other Iranian leaders boasting about how Tehran “controls four Arab capitals …or go and listen to the Iranian top protégé Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, continuing to launch vitriol against Saudi Arabia, Turkey and other sovereign nations. Complete lunatics on the loose.

For More: Iran is No Peace Partner

Thank you,

To be perfectly candid, I am not saying stocks are “a bubble” today. I am not saying prices are “ridiculous.” I am not saying the things that some of the louder doom-and-gloomers are howling about the coming devastation.

But I certainly think that what’s happening today is, in large part, the result of unsustainable easy-money policies from the Fed, and that it is too good to last.

One of the most important things you can do as an investor is to try to seek out smart arguments that lay out the opposite side of the views that you hold. In other words, if you’re bullish, you should seek out smart bears, and vice versa.

And if you’re so sure that stocks are just going to keep going up and that anyone who voices caution is a moron — then at least think about this

Someday, financial markets will again decline. Someday, rising stock and bond markets will no longer be government policy – maybe not today or tomorrow, but someday. Someday, QE will end and money won’t be free. Someday, corporate failure will be permitted.

For More: Bullish on Stocks?

Thank You,

The power of a determined human being who is not willing to give up is truly inspirational.

 
I have been inspired over the years by many friends, business and political activists with causes bigger than life.

 
The question at this turning point in time and a year away from the next Presidential Elections of 2016 is do the people of this nation have the determination, drive, and willpower to seize the reins of power and return the country to its place as a beacon of light and inspiration for the world? A nation that is powerful, yet benign? Do we have the courage to stand up for what we believe or will we continue to cower in the corner and hope no one sees us?

 
One way to develop courage is to consider what will happen if we fail to act. When considering action, I always do a best/worst analysis. I ask the following four questions about the prospective action:

For More:  2016 – What to do?

Thank You,

When it comes to the financial industry, there is a major fallacy that exists: that Wall Street deals only with elite, rich people who deserve to lose their money, and that Mom and Pop are not directly affected by the antics and conflicted practices in the industry.

This couldn’t be farther from the truth. Even when Wall Street CEOs are hauled in front of Congress—as Lloyd Blankfein was amid the SEC fraud charges against Goldman Sachs, and as Jamie Dimon was after JPMorgan Chase lost $6 billion on bad trades—they try to make this argument. “We are all big boys.” “We are all sophisticated institutional investors who know exactly what we are doing.”

 
But stop and think about this for a second. Whose money is being played with anyway?

 
Look at just the recent scandals: Who gets affected when a county in Alabama trades a structured derivative with JPMorgan that goes sour, and brings the county closer to bankruptcy? Who gets impacted when a government such as Greece or Italy trades derivatives with Goldman Sachs or JPMorgan to cover up its debt and kick its problems down the road? Who ultimately loses when Morgan Stanley misprices the Facebook IPO and mutual funds lose billions of dollars of retirement and 401(k) savings?

For More: Will Wall Street ever be fixed?

Thank you.

One of the most amusing phrases on Wall Street is “smart money.”

 
This phrase is used to describe the handful of professional investors whose abilities and foresight are thought to be so acute that they spot the big moneymaking opportunities before the average Joe Pro.

 
The smartest of the “smart money” is thought to be hedge funds.

 
A look at recent performance suggests that hedge funds are indeed extremely smart money, though not in the way that most people think.

 
In fact on average, hedge funds are no smarter about picking stocks or other investments than anyone else. In fact, they’re decidedly, startlingly worse.

 
Hedge funds are in fact shutting today at a rate not seen since the financial crisis, as many managers post disappointing returns and an elite group of firms dominate money raising.

For More: When Performance Doesn’t Matter

Thank you,